Market Update - Fall 2025
Real Estate Kristen Deschino September 21, 2025
Real Estate Kristen Deschino September 21, 2025
After some much-needed rain in the Santa Clarita Valley this week, the housing market is also receiving a welcome boost from the Federal Reserve’s recent quarter-point interest-rate cut on September 17, 2025. That move lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (0.25%), and while mortgage rates don’t move in perfect lockstep with the Fed, the effect has already been felt. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage easing from about 6.35% (pre-cut) to 6.26% for the week ending September 18, 2025. On a $1M home in Castaic with 20% down, that shift equates to roughly a couple hundred dollars in monthly savings versus a week earlier. The Fed has projected two additional rate cuts before the end of the year—totaling another 50 basis points—though those projections are conditional and not guaranteed.
While the rate cut won't be a dramatic shift overnight, it offers a timely opportunity for buyers, especially those who have been waiting to enter the market. Even a modest reduction in rates translates into meaningful monthly savings, which increases purchasing power, particularly for entry-level and mid-priced homes. For sellers, the market presents a blend of opportunity and caution. Lower interest rates generally attract more buyers, potentially leading to increased showings and even multiple offers in areas with limited inventory. However, sellers who are enjoying historically low mortgage rates may hesitate to list their properties, as selling often means giving up those favorable rates. This keeps housing supply constrained, which continues to exert upward pressure on prices.
In August, Santa Clarita Valley homes sold at about 99% of their final asking price and roughly 97–98% of their original list price, with longer days on market often tied to properties that required price reductions before selling. This underscores the importance of pricing a home appropriately at market entry for sellers; we believe strongly in a thorough comparative analysis for estimated market value—please reach out to our team to schedule.
Southern California continues to display resilience. Los Angeles County’s median prices remain near recent highs, and constrained inventory sustains competition in well-located neighborhoods. Locally, the Santa Clarita Valley (Castaic, Stevenson Ranch, Valencia, Newhall, Saugus, Canyon Country) remains active: single-family homes selling quickly when well-priced and carefully presented. The August metrics noted above (sale-to-list ratios and days on market) demonstrate a balanced but still seller-friendly environment for properly positioned listings.
City expansion projects, including significant green space additions throughout the valley, are also contributing to real estate desirability and the continued appeal Santa Clarita neighborhoods has to buyers. The David March Park expansion (adding about eight acres plus shade structures, a new basketball court, spectator seating, and an exercise staircase) is expected to be complete by early-to-mid 2026. The Riverview project (on the former Saugus Speedway property) has been approved for 318 residential units, affordable units included, plus commercial/light industrial space and community recreation areas. Finally, Centennial Real Estate plans to transform Valencia Town Center into a mixed-use destination with new residential units, Class A office space, upgraded retail, dining, and entertainment, creating a “live-work-play” environment. The redevelopment envisions over 2,200 homes and more than 600,000 square feet of commercial space as part of a $900 million revitalization.
These improvements—from park upgrades to new mixed-use developments—help raise comps in new construction, which tend to pull adjacent existing home values upward. For SCV, that means homes in established neighborhoods may enjoy appreciation due to enhanced green space, refreshed infrastructure, and heightened buyer expectations.
Nearby markets continue to present alternative opportunities:
Lake Hughes & Frazier Park — Entry-level 2–3 bedroom homes here often trade well below SCV levels, appealing to buyers seeking space and lifestyle. Frazier Park’s mountain setting and seasonal road/weather conditions are part of its appeal and should be considered when evaluating commute and access.
Fillmore — The downtown corridor and 126 Freeway access are encouraging new business activity and gradual revitalization, offering potential upside over time.
Bakersfield — Growing as a rental and investment market, Bakersfield benefits from logistics and fulfillment center growth (including Amazon facilities) that support steady rental demand and investor interest.
These areas offer a range of lifestyle and investment opportunities outside the SCV core.
Buyers: The recent rate movement improves purchasing power; for buyers who were waiting, now is a practical moment to reassess affordability and move forward where appropriate.
Sellers: Well-priced, well-prepared homes continue to receive competitive attention—especially in sought-after neighborhoods. For sellers in the market after many years of ownership, current conditions support strong net proceeds when combined with thoughtful pricing and marketing.
3rd Annual Family Homes First Poker Tournament — October 18, 2025
We’re looking forward to a night of cards and camaraderie at the Family Homes First Poker Tournament. It’s an evening that combines connection and impact, as the event supports young adults on the edge of homelessness or aging out of foster care by helping provide housing, meals, and life skills.
Race for the Rescues — November 15, 2025
Team 35 Oaks will be walking the 5K at the Rose Bowl—dogs included (so far we have two Rottweilers and two French Bulldogs on the team roster). If you’d like to join us for a walk and conversation, we’d love the company as we support local animal rescues with our favorite pooches. All of our clients and friends with social pups are encouraged to sign up (costumes are optional)❤️
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Our website delivers daily listing alerts and offers access to select “coming soon” properties before they hit larger platforms. If you’re actively searching (or just keeping an eye on the market), our 35 Oaks Property Search Portal is powered by CRMLS listings data (the largest MLS in both California and the nation), along with daily property search emails to keep you timely and informed. Search categories include single-family homes, condos/townhomes, manufactured homes, vacant land, commercial and multi-family properties throughout the greater Los Angeles County area, including Ventura, Kern, and Orange Counties.
At 35 Oaks Property Group, we exist to set a new standard in real estate: grounded in integrity, driven by effort, and guided by authenticity. We genuinely love real estate and our team is founded on earning our clients' trust through partnership with premier service.
Based in Hasley Canyon, Castaic, our reach spans Lake Hughes, Leona Valley and Palmdale/Lancaster, Stevenson Ranch, Valencia, and throughout the SCV, La Crescenta to Port Hueneme, and across Southern California. We make ourselves available seven days a week, because real estate waits for no schedule and 5am isn't too early in our world. With our team and clients being from the police/fire/medical/military worlds, all of us appreciate insane schedules and completely understand how shift work and excessive overtime impacts our lives.
Supporting law enforcement is part of who we are and our team is proud to offer exclusive listing and buyer representation incentives for those who serve. Please connect with us to discuss your real estate goals.
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Don’t know where to begin? Whether you are a first-time buyer, managing a sale and purchase simultaneously, evaluating investment properties, considering short- or long-term rentals, or moving out-of-state—we’re here to guide and connect you with trusted professionals in California or elsewhere to ensure your transition is smooth and supported. Talk to you soon!
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Pictured: Thank you to everyone for coming out to celebrate our 1st anniversary event at Society Pizza Lounge!
Who you choose to represent your interests in real estate matters. The brokerage with whom you partner with guides you through the sale or acquisition of a subject property, while advocating on your behalf, and serving as a fiduciary and trusted asset advisor. With distinct standards and dynamic experience, the 35 Oaks team provides exclusive listing services for home and land sellers, and buyer representation for those seeking to purchase real property or vacant land.
